News
01/10/2023 - New article: "Nowcasting industrial production using linear and non-linear models of electricity demand"
Great news! Our study was published on Energy Economics! We show that our best model based on electricity consumption outperforms the ones based on common alternatives, such as oil price ,stock index price, and business confidence indicator. We also show that our best model provides reliable nowcasts, especially in times of high volatility like the recent COVID-19 pandemic. You can find the article here and in the Publications page of this website.
Final - Fourth report.pdf19/10/2022 - New report: "OCEET Tracker of Energy Markets and Economic Activities: 2021"
This is the fourth and final report of the series. We report on the changes of load throughout 2021 and comment on how the time passed since the COVID-19 outbreak influence the performance of our methodology. You can download the report in our Publications page and download our weekly estimates from the Data section of our website.
WP IPI Forecasting.pdf08/06/2022 - New Working Paper: "Nowcasting industrial production using linear and non-linear models of electricity demand"
As part of the OCEET project, we investigated the challenges to forecast macroeconomic indicators in times of high volatility (e.g. crises). In this work, published as a working paper of the department of economics and management, we propose several modelling approaches to forecast industrial production and show that electricity consumption can provide reliable forecasts, especially in times of high volatility. You can find it in our Publications page!
Final - Third report.pdf23/12/2021 - New report: "OCEET Tracker of Energy Markets and Economic Activities: Q3-Q4 2020"
The third report in our series analyses the electricity consumption and the estimated economic impact on European countries during the second half of 2020. The estimates are based on the methodology illustrated in the first report. You can download the report in our Publications page and download our weekly estimates from the Data section of our website.
Final - Second report.pdf28/10/2021 - New report: "OCEET Tracker of Energy Markets and Economic Activities: Q1-Q2 2020"
The second report in our series analyses the electricity consumption and the estimated economic impact on European countries. The estimates are based on the methodology illustrated in the previous report. You can download the report in our Publications page and download our weekly estimates from the Data section of our website.
27/09/2021 - New report: "Methodological Notes"
Our report series starts with the Working Paper WP.2021.01, "Methodological Notes", which introduces the methodology we use in the project. Check it out from our Publications page!
15/09/2021 - New publication
A new publication is out! Check out the project's most recent paper by Carlo Fezzi and Valeria Fanghella: "Tracking GDP in real-time using electricity market data: Insights from the first wave of COVID-19 across Europe", published on the European Economic Review.
01/06/2021 - Official start of the project
The project has officially started as an interdepartmental effort of the University of Trento. Updates on the project will be published regularly on this page, while our publications and data can be retrieved in the Publications section.